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41.
江西省地质灾害-气象预警预报系统研究 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
论文采用了降雨特征(用降雨诱发指数表征)与地质环境条件(以地质灾害敏感性指数表征)进行叠加、分析,确定预警预报等级,建立地质灾害-预警预报模型的方法;提出了预警产品制作与发布、多普勒雷达跟踪、应急指导、反馈信息收集、灾情调查的地质灾害气象预警预报工作程序。对近几年江西省地质灾害-预警预报效果分析,总结了地质灾害-预警预报成功与失败的经验教训,提出今后的工作设想与建议。应用基于GIS的地质灾害预警预报系统已在近几年的地质灾害-气象预警预报中不断完善,预警预报精度得到提高,防灾减灾效果明显,对保护人民生命财产安全发挥了重要作用。 相似文献
42.
地下开采引发地面沉陷的未确知聚类预测方法 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
对未确知聚类预测法进行优化,并将其应用于开采地面沉陷的预测研究。采用开采地面沉陷的实测数据按最大沉陷量进行分类,利用各分类影响因素的均值表示各分类中心,并确定各影响因素的未确知测度函数。由待测对象指标的综合未确知测度与各分类指标的未确知测度间的距离来确定待预测对象所属等级,给出了预测值的计算公式。经计算验证,该方法的正确率为75%。但在实际应用中,为了保证地表建筑设施等更加安全,允许预测级高判,则正确率可达100%。针对某铁矿一观测点进行预测,并与实测数据比较,结果表明,未确知聚类预测的结果是令人满意的,为开采地面沉陷的预测提供了一种新思路。 相似文献
43.
Ben K. H. Soon Steve Scheding Hyung-Kuen Lee Hung-Kyu Lee Hugh Durrant-Whyte 《GPS Solutions》2008,12(4):261-271
This paper presents a simple and effective approach that incorporates single-frequency, L1 time-differenced GPS carrier phase
(TDCP) measurements without the need of ambiguity resolution techniques and the complexity to accommodate the delayed-state
terms. Static trial results are included to illustrate the stochastic characteristics and effectiveness of the TDCP measurements
in controlling position error growth. The formulation of the TDCP observation model is also described in a 17-state tightly-coupled
GPS/INS iterative, extended Kalman filter (IEKF) approach. Preliminary land vehicle trial results are also presented to illustrate
the effectiveness of the TDCP which provides sub-meter positional accuracies when operating for more than 10 min. 相似文献
44.
Open source, spatial analysis, and activity-travel behaviour research: capabilities of the aspace package 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper reports on recent experience with the development of aspace, an Open Source (OS) library for the geographic visualization and analysis of activity-travel behaviour. The paper begins
with an overview of recent progress with respect to the convergence of Open Source technology, spatial analysis, and travel
behaviour research. The remainder of the paper focuses on aspace; a collection of functions that, when combined with data describing the geographical location of daily activities, can be
used to visualize and describe spatial properties of individual and household activity spaces. These properties include: size,
orientation, shape, and the geographical dispersion of activity locations contained within the activity space. Several planar
geometries are used to transform measurable spatial properties into intuitive objects for visualizing spatial patterns of
activity participation. Experiments are conducted, using data from the first wave of the 2003 Toronto Travel Activity Panel
Survey, to demonstrate the potential application of aspace for basic and applied policy-based research into activity-travel behaviour. The toolkit is distributed as a downloadable
‘package’ from the Open Source R Project for Statistical Computing.
相似文献
45.
分析了GPS卫星预报星历,在比较分析EKF和UKF优缺点的基础上,将UKF引入GPS卫星轨道预报研究中.数值模拟和结果分析表明,UKF方法预报更稳定,能有效地提高轨道预报精度和稳定性. 相似文献
46.
GM(1,1)动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM(1,1)动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99.27%,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。 相似文献
47.
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49.
A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area. 相似文献
50.
J.D. Pelletier S.B. DeLong A.H. Al-Suwaidi M. Cline Y. Lewis J.L. Psillas B. Yanites 《Geomorphology》2006,74(1-4):257-270
Wave-cut pluvial shoreline scarps are ideal natural experiments in hillslope evolution because the ages of these scarps are often precisely known and because they form with a range of heights, alluvial textures, and microclimates (i.e., orientation). Previous work using midpoint-slope methods on pluvial scarps in the Basin and Range concluded that scarp evolution is nonlinear and microclimatically controlled. The purpose of this study was to further examine the influence of scarp height, texture and microclimate in an attempt to calibrate a nonlinear model of scarp evolution. To do this, over 150 profiles of the Bonneville shoreline in the adjacent Snake and Tule Valleys, west-central Utah were collected and analyzed by fitting the entire scarp profile to diffusion-equation solutions, taking into account uncertainty in the initial scarp angle. In contrast to previous studies, this analysis revealed no evidence for nonlinearity or microclimatic control. To understand the reason for this discrepancy, we undertook a systematic study of the accuracy of each scarp-analysis method. The midpoint-slope-inverse method was found to yield biased results, with systematically higher diffusion ages for young, tall scarps. The slope-offset method is unbiased but has limited resolution because it requires many scarp profiles to yield a single diffusion age. A method that incorporates the full scarp profile and uncertainty in the initial scarp angle was found to be the most accurate technique. The application of the full-scarp method to the Bonneville shoreline supports the use of a linear diffusion model for scarps up to 20 m in height. Scarp orientation had no discernable effect on diffusivity values. Soil texture was found to have a weak but significant inverse relationship with diffusivity values. 相似文献